توقع: Highest temperature in Paris on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

Paris-Le Bourget Airport is the settlement point here, so the key question is whether early-August heat in the city can push that station into an unusually high daily maximum. Typical Paris August highs sit around 23–26°C in long-run climate averages, which would normally place the market’s settlement band well below the upper end of the range.[3][10][11][13]

That said, this pricing sits against a year already marked by exceptional French heat. Paris reached 40.9°C in late June during a broader European heatwave, while some parts of France climbed above 44°C, showing that the market is not simply about seasonal averages but about whether an acute hot spell arrives on the settlement day.[6][8][9][15][18] With a 1% crowd-implied YES price, the market is effectively treating a very high Paris reading on 3 August as a low-probability tail event rather than a routine summer outcome.[3][10][13]

The main catalysts are short-range forecast updates, any renewed heat advisories over northern France, and whether model guidance starts to converge on a hot, dry air mass over Île-de-France in the final 72 hours before the window closes. Traders will be watching the daily Paris outlook and any official French meteorological warnings, because a change from normal August weather to another continental heat plume is the sort of shift that would move this market quickly.[6][8][9]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Paris on August 3?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.