توقع: Highest temperature in Paris on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Paris-Le Bourget Airport’s summer climatology makes a **0% YES** price hard to square with the calendar. August in Paris is typically warm rather than cool, with average highs clustered around the mid-20s Celsius and long-run August highs often cited in the 23°C to 26°C range; WeatherSpark even puts 4 August among the warmest days of the year on average, with typical highs around 78°F, or about 26°C.[13][1][2][15]

That said, the market resolves on the **single highest reading** at Paris-Le Bourget, not the daily average, so the relevant question is whether the afternoon can spike above the most likely band. Recent forecast material for Paris and Île-de-France has pointed to a sunnier interlude on 4 August after earlier showers, with highs around 30°C to 32°C in the city area, which would leave room for a top-of-range airport observation if the warmer scenario verifies.[12] The airport site is north of central Paris, so local cloud, wind shift, or convection can still pull the max away from headline city forecasts.

Traders should watch the final morning-to-afternoon forecast updates, especially any changes in shower timing, thunderstorm risk, and peak sunshine during the settlement window ending at 12:00 UTC. The main catalyst is whether early cloud and rain clear fast enough for a brief warm-up; if they do, the day can print above the seasonal norm, but if showers linger, the maximum can stay pinned close to the mid-20s Celsius.[7][12][13]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Paris on August 4?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

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Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.