توقع: Highest temperature in Paris on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Paris will experience its peak daytime heat on 16 July 2026 at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, with the market currently pricing a 0% chance of any outcome above the lowest defined range. This extreme bearish stance contradicts the historical warming trend, where average July temperatures during the Olympic window have risen by 5.5°F since 1924, pushing recent highs well into the 30°C bracket [3]. Current trading data from similar platforms shows the frontrunner is 33°C at 44%, with 32°C trailing at 35%, suggesting the 0% probability on this specific market may reflect a structural pricing error or a misalignment in the defined resolution ranges rather than a genuine meteorological forecast [1].

Traders should monitor the immediate release of the official Wunderground daily record for Paris-Le Bourget once the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 16 July, as this is the sole resolution source [1]. The primary catalyst is the real-time temperature feed itself; given that current conditions in Paris show light rain and overcast skies with temperatures near 46°F, a sudden mid-afternoon heat spike would be the only event capable of shifting the implied probability from zero [2]. Any discrepancy between the live ambient temperature and the final reported maximum at the airport station will determine the outcome, making the timing of the peak heat relative to the station’s measurement cycle the critical dependency for settlement.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Paris on July 16?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.