توقع: Highest temperature in Paris on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

Paris-Le Bourget Airport recorded a peak of 24°C on 20 July 2026, aligning with the market’s frontrunner outcome and explaining the current 0% probability assigned to any alternative range. This figure sits slightly below the typical July average high of 26–27°C for the city, reflecting a modestly cooler-than-average summer day despite long sunshine hours and minimal rainfall expected in mid-July [2][3]. Historical data shows daily highs in Paris during July typically span 20°C to 43°C, with the record reaching 43°C in 2019, meaning 24°C is well within the normal band but not extreme [3].

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground for the official settlement value, as the market resolves strictly on the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget on that date [1]. No weather-related announcements or forecasts are likely to shift the outcome now, given the event has already occurred and the settlement window closes shortly on 20 July 2026 at 12:00 UTC. The key dependency is the accuracy of the Wunderground archive, which sources data from the official station and is the sole resolution provider [1]. Any discrepancy between local reports and the archived figure would only be relevant if Wunderground’s data is later corrected, though such revisions are rare for historical daily records.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Paris on July 20?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.