توقع: Highest temperature in Paris on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

Paris-Le Bourget Airport will record its highest temperature on 24 July 2026, with settlement determined by Wunderground's historical weather data for that specific date. The market resolves to whichever temperature band captures the peak reading across all hours of that day.

July temperatures in the Paris region typically range between 20–28°C, though heat waves can push readings into the low 30s. Historical precedent matters here: Paris recorded 42.6°C during the June 2022 heatwave and 40.3°C in July 2019, establishing that extreme outliers do occur but remain statistically infrequent. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either typical summer conditions or scepticism about extreme heat materialising on this particular date. Comparable July days at Le Bourget over the past decade cluster around 24–26°C as modal outcomes, with readings above 30°C occurring roughly once every three to four summers.

The primary catalyst affecting this market is European weather forecasting data, which becomes actionable roughly 10–14 days before 24 July 2026. Traders should monitor whether Atlantic pressure systems deliver cooler maritime air or whether high-pressure systems establish over continental Europe, the latter creating conditions favourable to sustained heat. Seasonal climate indices and any emerging El Niño or La Niña patterns could signal broader temperature trends by mid-2026, though such signals remain uncertain at present. Settlement closes at midday UTC on 24 July, giving traders access to morning forecasts before final positioning.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Paris on July 24?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.