توقع: Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

San Francisco International Airport is expected to face typical July maritime conditions on 12 July 2026, with forecast highs ranging between 69°F and 79°F rather than extreme heat. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for any unusually high temperature aligns with the station’s historical climate, where the average July high sits at 73°F and the warm season rarely breaches 80°F without a significant inland heat dome [1][3]. Recent data confirms this trend, as the airport recorded its coldest first half of summer since 1965, with average maximums through mid-July hovering near 67.6°F [4]. Even during the Bay Area’s record-breaking heat waves, such as the event setting an 87°F record at KSFO in recent years, temperatures rarely sustain extremes long enough to shift probability markets dramatically unless a persistent ridge forms [6].

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s 7-day outlook for any sudden shifts toward sunny, cloud-free conditions that could push temperatures toward the 77°F upper forecast limit [5]. The primary catalyst is the presence or absence of a marine layer; if the typical coastal fog fails to develop by midday, temperatures could climb closer to 75°F–79°F, though still well below the thresholds that would trigger a “YES” resolution in most extreme-heat scenarios [8]. No major atmospheric anomalies or fire-related heat warnings have been issued for the region as of early July 2026, suggesting stable, moderate conditions [1]. Watch for updates from AccuWeather’s daily forecasts, which currently project 75°F for 12 July with intervals of clouds and sunshine, reinforcing the low probability of extreme heat [8].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 12?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

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FAQ

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