توقع: Highest temperature in Seattle on August 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seattle’s temperature high on 5 August is likely to sit in a fairly tight late-summer band, with forecast services around the date pointing to lows in the mid-50s to low-60s Fahrenheit and highs mostly in the upper-70s to low-80s. AccuWeather’s Seattle monthly page showed 5 August with an actual high of 80°F, while adjacent days were also clustered in the low 80s, which is the sort of range that keeps the market centred on the mid-band outcomes rather than an extreme print.[1]

That is why a 0% crowd-implied probability on the market’s YES side looks like a strong lean against a very hot outcome rather than a view that the event cannot settle. Seattle’s August climate is typically warm but not desert-hot, and WeatherSpark’s historical August data for Seattle shows a seasonal pattern of moderate daytime temperatures rather than repeated 90°F+ spikes.[8][14] Recent KSEA-linked weather history also showed a 24-hour high of 84.0°F around the start of the month, which illustrates how quickly the airport can reach the low-to-mid 80s without pushing into exceptional territory.[2]

The main catalysts are the actual KSEA observations on the day, especially any heat advisory or forecast upgrade from the National Weather Service and whether marine influence or inland warming dominates the afternoon peak. A local advisory on 5 August warned of hot conditions with highs up to 85 to 90 degrees in nearby areas, which matters because a small upward revision in airport temperatures can move the settlement across adjacent bands even if the broader Seattle forecast looks ordinary.[4] Traders should also watch whether the airport station’s observed peak lands close to model guidance; if the day tracks the 80°F area shown in AccuWeather’s daily view, the market is likely to settle near the middle outcomes rather than the tails.[1][6]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Seattle on August 5?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

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FAQ

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