توقع: Highest temperature in Seattle on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seattle’s reading at Sea-Tac on 9 August is the settled event, and the key reference point is the airport’s daily maximum rather than the broader “high/low” summary. The market is currently priced at 0% for YES, which is hard to reconcile with the historical record: 9 August has reached 99°F in Seattle twice, in 1960 and 1981, while the August average high is far lower, around the upper 70s. [1][4][16]

That historical profile matters because this is a late-summer Seattle weather market, not a pure tail-risk wager. The comparable cases show that very hot outcomes are rare but not exotic, and Sea-Tac’s own climate normals put a typical 9 August maximum near 79°F, with the record sitting a full 20°F above that. A market at 0% YES is therefore only justified if traders are relying on a specific post-event observation already visible in the resolution source, rather than the date’s climatology. [7][16][10]

What traders should watch is the sequence of official daily observations and any late corrections in Weather Underground’s history page, because the market rules say revisions count until the first datapoint for the following day appears. That means the decisive catalyst is not a forecast change now, but whether the Sea-Tac daily maximum is logged cleanly, then left unchanged through the cutoff for subsequent edits. Historical weather pages and current forecast products indicate a mild, mostly sunny pattern for 9 August, with highs in the mid-70s to low-80s rather than a run at the old record. [3][10][11][12]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Seattle on August 9?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

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FAQ

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