توقع: Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 18?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul's peak temperature on 18 August 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport Station and resolved against the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground, with settlement occurring at midday UTC on that date. The resolution hinges on the granular hourly readings rather than summary high-low figures, meaning intraday temperature spikes matter more than daily extremes alone.

August in Seoul typically peaks between 28–32°C, though heat waves have driven readings above 35°C in recent years. The summer of 2024 saw temperatures reach 33–34°C during mid-August, whilst 2023 recorded similar patterns with occasional excursions to 35°C. Historical data from Incheon shows that extreme heat events—those exceeding 36°C—occur roughly once every three to five years in August, making such outcomes statistically uncommon but not unprecedented. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in a specific temperature threshold that sits well outside typical August ranges for the region.

Traders should monitor long-range weather models released in late July and early August, particularly those from the Korea Meteorological Administration and international centres like ECMWF. Tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during early-to-mid August could either suppress temperatures through cloud cover and rainfall or, conversely, drive extreme heat if systems remain distant. The specific resolution methodology—prioritising the Daily Observations table over summary figures—means traders must verify Wunderground's data collection practices at Incheon, as sensor calibration or reporting delays could affect which hourly reading becomes the official high.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 18?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Can I import form data and lineups?

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