توقع: Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul's weather in late August sits within the peak of the East Asian summer monsoon season, when the Korean peninsula experiences high humidity and frequent convective activity. Historical records from Incheon International Airport, the official measurement station for this market, show August daily highs typically ranging between 28–32°C, though extreme heat events pushing toward 35°C occur roughly once every five to ten years during particularly intense heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either scepticism about extreme heat materialising on that specific date or uncertainty about the resolution mechanics tied to Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than the Day High & Low summary.

Comparable August heat events in Seoul provide calibration points: the 2018 heat wave saw temperatures exceed 34°C on multiple dates, whilst the 2022 summer remained closer to seasonal norms around 30°C. Traders should monitor late July and early August 2026 atmospheric patterns, particularly the position of the North Pacific high-pressure system and any tropical cyclone activity that could either suppress or amplify temperatures. The distinction between Weather Underground's Daily Observations table and its summary section has resolved previous weather markets with material discrepancies; verifying data source consistency ahead of settlement will be critical, as Incheon Airport's automated station records minute-by-minute observations that occasionally diverge from daily summaries by 1–2°C.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 21?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.