توقع: Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 8?

Platform comparison

Market context

Incheon International Airport’s temperature reading is currently being priced against a very hot August setup, but the market has to resolve off the highest *observed* value in Weather Underground’s Daily Observations table rather than the headline day high. Forecasts for Seoul are clustered around the upper 30s Celsius, with Timeanddate showing 97°F and AccuWeather also pointing to 97°F for 8 August, while Weather Underground’s own Seoul page is already indicating a forecast near 98°F/77°F, so a clear upside path remains if the airport station tracks the capital’s heat. [2][3][11]

The 0% YES price is consistent with the way these markets often behave before the observation window opens: traders are effectively waiting for the actual station print rather than the forecast. Comparable official short-term guidance from the Korea Meteorological Administration has pointed to persistent heat and tropical-night conditions in the Seoul area, with highs around 32–33°C in the broader region and continued thunderstorm risk, which can cap temperatures if cloud and rain arrive early, or lift the line if sunshine dominates through the afternoon. [8][13]

The main catalysts are the same-day observation updates from Weather Underground at Incheon, especially any early-morning cloud, rain, or wind shifts that would suppress the eventual daily maximum. Hourly Seoul forecasts show temperatures still rising into late morning, with 94°F by 11:00 and only scattered showers, so the key dependency is whether convective rain develops before the peak heating window; if it does not, the airport station has a credible route to a high-end print close to the forecast ceiling. [7][2][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 8?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

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