توقع: Highest temperature in Seoul on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul faces its peak summer heat on 11 July 2026, with the Incheon International Airport station expected to record the day’s highest temperature in degrees Celsius. Historical data shows July highs in Seoul typically range between 27°C and 35°C, rarely exceeding 37°C unless a severe heatwave strikes [1][3]. The current 0% crowd-implied probability for any specific outcome suggests traders view extreme highs—such as the 39.6°C record set in 2018 or the 41.0°C national peak in Hongcheon—as highly improbable for this specific date and location [5][6].

Recent climate trends reinforce caution: South Korea experienced its second-hottest July since 1973 in 2025, with an average of 27.1°C, and heatwaves have intensified in frequency [7]. However, July also marks the start of the monsoon season, where fast-moving showers can abruptly cool afternoons, limiting sustained extremes [3]. Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s daily forecasts for heatwave alerts and rainfall probability, as a “severe” alert raised six days earlier than last year in 2025 indicates growing volatility [5]. Any sudden shift in cloud cover or precipitation timing could decisively alter the final reading at Incheon.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Seoul on July 11?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.