توقع: Highest temperature in Seoul on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul’s highest temperature on 16 July 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport, the official site for the city’s climate records, with settlement based on Wunderground’s daily maximum in degrees Celsius. The market currently implies zero probability of any outcome above the lowest range, suggesting traders expect a cool day or a data anomaly, yet this contradicts recent heat trends in the region.

Historical data shows Seoul has experienced extreme early-July heat, including a record 37.7°C on 8 July 2025—the hottest day in 117 years for that period [2]. Past records from timeanddate.com indicate typical mid-July highs in Seoul often exceed 30°C, with frequent spikes above 35°C during recent summers [1]. The 0% YES probability appears misaligned with this trajectory, as comparable cases from 2024 and 2025 show consistent high-temperature outcomes in mid-July.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s weekly heatwave forecasts and Wunderground’s real-time updates for Incheon Airport, as sudden shifts in monsoon patterns or urban heat amplification could alter the day’s peak. No official heat advisory has been issued for 16 July 2026 as of early morning UTC, but the absence of one does not rule out a record-breaking day given the 2025 precedent [2]. Watch for any late-night model revisions from global weather agencies that may adjust temperature projections for the Korean peninsula.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Seoul on July 16?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.