توقع: Highest temperature in Seoul on July 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul faces its peak summer heat on 21 July 2026, with the Incheon International Airport station set to record the day’s highest temperature in degrees Celsius. Historical July data shows typical highs around 28°C, with average daily temperatures ranging from 21°C to 28°C and high humidity levels often exceeding 80%[2]. The current market heavily favours 27°C at 86%, while 28°C holds just 10%, suggesting traders expect slightly below-average peak heat despite the season’s usual intensity[1].

Comparable cases from recent Julys in Seoul indicate that temperatures frequently hover near or just under the 28°C average, often dipping to 27°C when cloud cover or rain interrupts the heatwave. With a 43% chance of rain on average July days and significant humidity, even minor shifts in weather patterns can push the peak below the historical mean[2]. The 0% implied probability for any outcome above 28°C reflects a market consensus that extreme heat beyond the norm is unlikely this year.

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground’s daily history page for the Incheon station, as the market resolves strictly on the highest recorded temperature for that day[1]. Any sudden changes in forecasted cloud cover, precipitation, or wind speed—currently averaging 18.2 kph in July—could act as immediate catalysts shifting the probability between 27°C and 28°C[2]. No official weather announcements are expected before settlement, so reliance remains on live observational data from the designated source.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Seoul on July 21?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.