توقع: Highest temperature in Seoul on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul’s July 6 high temperature hinges on whether the East Asian monsoon delivers typical early-month warmth or an intensified heatwave, with the market currently pricing a 28°C peak at near-zero probability despite climatology placing the mean daily high between 28°C and 30°C[1]. Historical data shows July highs in Seoul rarely fall below 29°C (84°F) or exceed 33°C (91°F), while recent years have seen record-breaking extremes, including a 37.7°C peak in early July 2025—the highest in 117 years of records[2][5]. The 2025 summer also featured 22 tropical nights in Seoul, with temperatures staying above 29.3°C, suggesting a trend toward more persistent heat that could push 2026’s July 6 reading above 28°C[3].

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s updated forecast for July 6, as resolution depends on the official maximum recorded at Incheon International Airport and the market is highly sensitive to any new KMA data released before noon Seoul time[1]. The settlement window closes at 2026-07-06T12:00:00Z, meaning any sudden shift in monsoon activity or heatwave intensity in the next 24 hours could drastically alter implied probabilities[1]. With only $2,192 in total volume and all trading occurring in the last 24 hours, the market remains thin and vulnerable to rapid repricing based on the latest KMA outlook[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Seoul on July 6?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.