توقع: Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai’s late-summer heat usually keeps the top of the range in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius, but the airport station can still produce a spike above that on a hot, humid day. Weather Underground’s Shanghai history page shows a record high of 103°F for the city history view, while recent August examples across weather sites include highs around 33–38°C, with 10 August 2024 reaching 38°C in one historical dataset and 10 August 2025 closer to the mid-30s°C range.[8][6][15] That makes a zero-priced “YES” on a specific temperature band understandable only if traders think the station will stay below the hotter historical extremes.

For a market resolving on Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, the most relevant catalysts are the day’s forecast trend, the timing of any rain or thunderstorm bands, and whether cloud cover or onshore flow limits peak heating before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC. The current Shanghai forecast for 10 August points to overcast conditions, very high precipitation chances, and a daytime high in the low 30s°C rather than the upper 30s°C, which would normally cap the chance of an extreme peak if it verifies.[13][18] Traders should also watch for any updated Weather Underground observations from ZSPD itself, because the market resolves off the Daily Observations table rather than the summary high-low display.[16][8]

The main read-through from comparable cases is that Shanghai August temperatures often cluster tightly around the climatological high of roughly 32°C, but isolated hot spells can push well beyond that when skies clear and rainfall holds off.[14][15][19] That leaves the probability sensitive to small forecast changes: a few hours of sun ahead of convection can add several degrees, while an earlier rain band or persistent marine cloud can keep the station below the upper 30s°C bands that would be needed for a larger upside move.[13][6]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 10?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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When do sports markets resolve?

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What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

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Which sports markets are available?

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Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.