توقع: Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai is currently experiencing passing clouds at 84°F (29°C) as the settlement clock ticks for the 13 July 2026 high-temperature resolution at Pudong International Airport [5]. The crowd-implied 0% probability for any specific outcome suggests the market has not yet priced a definitive range, despite historical data confirming July as the city’s hottest month with average highs near 87°F (31°C) [3]. Typical daily highs at Pudong in mid-July climb between 84°F and 88°F (29–31°C), rarely exceeding 95°F (35°C) [1]. Current 2026 forecasts for the airport project daily highs ranging from 86°F to 97°F (30–36°C), with some models pushing toward 98°F (37°C) [2]. This historical volatility means a single outlier day could easily breach common thresholds, yet the zero probability indicates traders are either awaiting a concrete forecast or betting the day will remain within a narrow, unlisted band.

Traders must monitor the hourly forecast updates from Yr and AccuWeather for Pudong, which show partly cloudy conditions expected through the afternoon on 13 July [10]. The primary catalyst is the real-time temperature reading at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station (ZSPD), which will be the sole resolution source via Wunderground [9]. Any sudden shift in cloud cover or wind speed—currently 17 mph from the north—could alter the peak temperature significantly [5]. Since the settlement window ends at 12:00 UTC on 13 July, the market will resolve based on the highest recorded temperature for all times on that day, making the afternoon peak critical [2]. No injury or lineup news applies here; the only dependency is the meteorological data stream from the official station.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 13?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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