توقع: Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai's weather on 14 July 2026 will be measured against historical temperature records from Pudong International Airport, the city's primary meteorological station. July typically marks the peak of Shanghai's summer monsoon season, with afternoon highs regularly exceeding 32°C and occasional spikes toward 35–37°C during heat waves. The settlement hinges on the single highest temperature recorded across all daylight and evening hours on that specific date, resolved via Wunderground's historical database.

Shanghai's July temperatures have shown considerable year-to-year variation. Between 2015 and 2024, the highest temperatures on 14 July ranged from 28°C to 36°C, with roughly half the years falling between 32–34°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either extreme confidence in a cooler outcome or uncertainty about which temperature bracket will resolve. Historical data from the China Meteorological Administration indicates that mid-July heat waves occur in approximately 40% of years, driven by Pacific high-pressure systems that intensify afternoon heating.

Traders should monitor seasonal forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during early July 2026, as typhoons can suppress temperatures significantly. Urban heat island effects at Pudong have gradually increased baseline temperatures over the past decade. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 14 July, meaning traders will have only partial visibility into the day's full temperature range before resolution occurs.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 14?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.