توقع: Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai is headed for another very hot, humid day, with live forecasts still pointing to afternoon highs around 37°C and only patchy relief from cloud or showers. Hourly readings overnight were already near 31°C at Pudong, and the broader forecast range for the city sits in the mid-to-high 30s Celsius, which keeps the day firmly in heatwave territory rather than near any lower band on the market.[4][6][7]

That matters because the settlement point is the *single highest reading* at Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, not the citywide average. July in Shanghai is already one of the hottest, stickiest periods of the year, with typical highs around 32–33°C and frequent rain that can trim afternoon extremes, but recent forecasts still allow for peaks close to 35–37°C. In practical terms, the crowd’s 0% YES implies traders see almost no chance the day’s maximum will land in the market’s higher temperature bands, unless the airport station prints an unusually strong spike.[3][5][9]

The main catalysts are timing and weather evolution through the afternoon, when Shanghai’s heat usually tops out before convection and thunderstorms develop. Current outlooks mention scattered showers and thunderstorms later in the day, which could cap the absolute high if they arrive early, while a sunnier, drier morning would leave the door open to the upper end of the forecast range.[1][7] The key dependency is the airport-specific Wunderground history page, so any change in local cloud cover, rain timing, or wind direction at Pudong is more relevant than general Shanghai headlines.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 24?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

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