توقع: Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai’s late-July heat usually sits in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius, and the current forecasts lean close to that pattern. AccuWeather’s July outlook shows daily highs generally between 86°F and 100°F, while Weather.com’s 10-day forecast for Pudong points to a Sunday high near 95°F, with the Met Office also flagging 37°C for Shanghai and only limited rain risk in the evening. That puts a sub-35°C outcome in play, but still leaves enough upside for a mid-30s peak if cloud breaks and rainfall stay patchy.[1][12][14]

The historical frame is straightforward: July is Shanghai’s hottest and rainiest month, and the end of the month can still produce some of the clearest skies. WeatherSpark says 31 July is the clearest day of the month 41% of the time, which matters because clearer conditions increase the chance of a stronger daytime maximum. Other seasonal guides put July highs around 33°C to 34°C, so a low-30s print is the base case, but 36°C or higher is not out of line when the heat ridge is in place.[8][11][18][20]

For traders, the main catalysts are the hourly forecast updates and any change in thunderstorm timing, cloud cover, or sea-breeze strength around Pudong before the noon UTC settlement cut-off. BBC Weather currently shows Shanghai observations at 22°C with humid, breezy conditions, and the local forecast feeds still carry shower risk, so a morning overcast spell could cap the day’s peak even if the afternoon stays warm.[2][10][14] Chinese municipal forecasts have already shown Shanghai at 38°C in the broader city outlook, which is a reminder that the ceiling remains high if the hottest air reaches the airport station.[7]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

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FAQ

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