توقع: Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shenzhen’s airport reading on 2 August will almost certainly be judged against a very warm seasonal baseline, not an outlier cool spell. August normals in the city sit around 31–32°C for daytime highs, with most sources clustering close to 32°C, while historical peaks for the month have reached 38–40°C in some datasets, and August records in Shenzhen have been reported as high as 103°F, or about 39.4°C.[1][4][5][7][8][10] That makes a **0% YES** price on a broad temperature band easier to understand if the market is pinned to a narrow range above the seasonal mean: Shenzhen regularly posts low-to-mid 30s Celsius in August, but the very top end is usually reserved for the hottest, sunniest days rather than the monthly average.[4][6][10]

For traders, the main catalyst is the actual airport maximum rather than the citywide forecast, so the key watchpoints are the day’s convective cloud cover, rainfall and any typhoon-linked disturbance over southern Guangdong, all of which can cap the peak by several degrees even in a hot month.[8][10][19] The market settles from Wunderground’s daily history page for Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport, so the practical dependency is the airport’s reported top reading through the full calendar day, not the early-morning or forecast high alone.[Wunderground source in market description] On the day itself, the first credible readings and the afternoon surge matter most; if showers build early, the maximum can land in the high 20s or low 30s Celsius rather than the upper-30s territory that would threaten the hotter bands.[1][3][9]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 2?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

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FAQ

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