توقع: Highest temperature in Singapore on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Singapore’s heat on 6 August is usually driven by a narrow band of tropical afternoon highs rather than by broad day-to-day swings, so the market is really about whether the day peaks in the low 30s Celsius or gets held down by cloud and showers. Long-run August averages in Singapore cluster around 31°C (about 88°F), with daily highs rarely moving far outside the 27–31°C range in travel and climate guides, while AccuWeather’s current August forecast shows highs mostly in the mid-80s Fahrenheit, roughly 29–31°C, across the month.[1][5][18][19]

That makes a 0% ‘Yes’ price for an upper-end temperature band easy to read as a strong scepticism signal: traders are saying the day is unlikely to land at the very top of the available outcomes unless conditions turn notably hotter than the usual August pattern. The NEA’s fortnight outlook for early August 2026 points to southwest monsoon conditions, with fair and occasionally windy weather on some days, localised thundery showers, and daily maximum temperatures likely around 33–34°C on most days, which supports the idea that the ceiling is warm but can still be capped by transient rain.[13]

The key catalysts are the midday and afternoon observations at Changi, because the market settles on the highest recorded temperature for the day rather than an average. Traders will be watching whether forecast showers arrive early enough to suppress the peak, or whether sunny intervals let the temperature briefly spike before cloud builds; current third-party forecasts are already showing warm conditions around 29–31°C and partial cloud cover, which leaves some upside if the air stays dry into the afternoon.[2][3][10]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Singapore on August 6?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.