توقع: Highest temperature in Taipei on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Taipei’s hottest reading on 10 August will come from the Weather Underground daily observations for Taipei Songshan Airport, with the market settling on the Celsius range that contains that day’s peak. Early August in Taipei is normally very warm and humid, with typical highs around 32–34°C, while current forecast products cluster near 33–34°C and flag a decent chance of afternoon thunderstorms[2][4][5][13]. That leaves the main question not whether it gets hot, but whether cloud cover and rain hold the peak down into the 33–34°C band or allow a brief push into 35°C or above[2][5][7].

The historical frame points to a fairly tight distribution around the low-to-mid 30s. Weather Journey lists a long-run average high of 32.8°C for 10 August in Taipei, alongside a record high of 38.0°C set in 2019[2]. Similar climate summaries put August’s average high near 33°C and note that Taipei regularly sits in a hot, wet monsoon pattern at this time of year[4][8][15]. That makes the market’s 0% yes pricing on the upper outcomes look more like a reflection of dispersion around the exact observation window than of any expectation of unusual cold; in practical terms, the live temperature path matters more than the headline daily forecast.

Traders should watch for late-morning and early-afternoon updates from the Taiwan Central Weather Administration and any shift in thunderstorm timing, because the settlement source uses the airport station’s observed daily maximum, not a summary high from a forecast page[10]. AccuWeather, Timeanddate and other forecast feeds already show daytime highs in the low 30s Celsius and storm chances, so a change in cloud cover, sea-breeze timing or convective rainfall could move the final print by a degree or two[5][7][11]. In markets like this, the decisive catalyst is usually whether the first heavy shower arrives before or after the day’s maximum is logged.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Taipei on August 10?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

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FAQ

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