توقع: Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo's highest temperature on 14 August 2026 will be measured at Haneda Airport Station and recorded in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, meaning the full day's heat data must be captured before resolution. August in Tokyo typically sees daily highs between 32–35°C, with occasional peaks above 36°C during heat waves, though the specific forecast for next summer remains uncertain at this distance.

Historical records show Tokyo experienced 37.0°C on 16 August 2023 and 36.4°C on 13 August 2022, establishing that mid-August heat waves regularly push into the upper 36–37°C range. The Japan Meteorological Agency's long-term data indicates roughly one-in-three Augusts see at least one day exceeding 35°C in central Tokyo. The current 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either an unusually cool August 2026 or systematic underestimation of typical summer temperatures for that date.

Traders should monitor seasonal forecasts released by JMA in the months preceding August 2026, which typically indicate whether the summer will trend warmer or cooler than normal. El Niño or La Niña conditions, announced by NOAA and JMA, materially influence Japanese summer temperatures. Urban heat island effects around Haneda have intensified over the past decade, making historical comparisons less reliable as a sole predictor. The specific resolution methodology—using Daily Observations rather than summary highs—may affect outcomes if discrepancies emerge between data sources on the day itself.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 14?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.