توقع: Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 8?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s late-summer heat is already in place, with current readings around 27–32°C and Weather Underground showing 92°F/77°F at 9:39 JST, while other live forecasts point to a day that can still climb into the low-to-mid 30s Celsius. That matters because this market settles on the **single highest temperature** recorded in Weather Underground’s Daily Observations table at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, not the headline day-high, so a brief afternoon spike is enough to decide the range.[4][2][3]

The current 0% yes price sits against the seasonal backdrop: August in Tokyo is typically very hot, with average highs around 30–31°C and common daily peaks in the low 30s, while long-range August guidance from AccuWeather shows forecast highs spanning roughly 83° to 94°F for the month. Comparable August climatology also shows the 8 August period is among the muggiest of the year, which supports the idea that late-morning to mid-afternoon heat can still overperform even when the morning starts below forecast highs.[1][11][13]

For traders, the key catalysts are the hourly updates and any midday shift in cloud cover, sea breeze, or rain risk, because those directly affect whether Haneda prints a fresh intraday high before the settlement window closes. Weather Underground’s station page is updating in real time, and other live sources already show warm, humid conditions with little immediate rainfall signal, so the line will likely move only if the afternoon turns hotter than current guidance or if a shower caps the maximum earlier than expected.[4][2][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 8?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.