توقع: Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event driving this market is the peak summer heat expected at Tokyo Haneda Airport on 10 July 2026, a date that falls squarely within Japan’s transition from the humid tail-end of the rainy season to the intense, sunny conditions of midsummer. Historical data for Haneda in July shows daily highs typically ranging from 25°C to 33°C, with frequent peaks exceeding 35°C (95°F) during the second half of the month, while humidity consistently surpasses 75%[6][7]. Given that 10 July is still in the first half, the crowd-implied 0% probability for a temperature above a certain high threshold likely reflects a conservative view that the full midsummer heatwave has not yet fully materialised, though recent forecasts for 10 July already indicate a high of 32°C with clear skies[2][3].

Traders should monitor official weather announcements from the Japan Meteorological Agency for any sudden shifts in cloud cover or precipitation that could suppress temperatures, as well as real-time updates from Wunderground, the designated resolution source, which will publish the day’s highest recorded temperature at Haneda[1]. A key catalyst is the timing of the Tsuyu (rainy season) exit; if the humid tail persists longer than usual, it could delay the onset of the 35°C+ peaks typical of Manatsu, whereas an early shift to clear, sunny conditions could push temperatures higher than current models suggest[6]. With settlement ending at 12:00 UTC on 10 July, any late-morning cloud development or unexpected rainfall could be decisive, making live Wunderground data the most critical dependency for accurate positioning[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 10?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.