توقع: Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo faces a mid-summer heatwave on 13 July 2026, with the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station expected to record its peak daily temperature before the settlement window closes at noon UTC. Current forecasts for Haneda in July 2026 indicate daily highs ranging between 28°C and 32°C (83°F to 90°F), with the average high settling near 30°C (86°F) [1]. The 0% implied probability for any outcome suggests the market currently anticipates no temperature reading will trigger a resolution, likely due to a misunderstanding of the settlement mechanics or an expectation of data failure, despite historical records showing July highs in Tokyo rarely falling below 25°C [2].

Historical data from the Haneda-kūkō station confirms that mid-July temperatures consistently exceed 25°C, with recent peaks in early July 2026 reaching 29.5°C (85.2°F) [3]. Comparable cases from the Japan Meteorological Agency show the daily normal maximum for Tokyo in mid-July is 29.8°C, making a sub-25°C reading statistically improbable under normal conditions [6]. Traders should monitor the live Wunderground feed for the specific 13 July entry, as the market resolves strictly on the highest recorded figure for that day [1]. Any sudden shift in cloud cover or precipitation, such as the partly cloudy afternoon forecast for Haneda, could marginally suppress the peak but will not prevent a standard summer high [9].

Key catalysts include the official release of the 13 July daily history on Wunderground at 00:00 UTC the following day, which will confirm the settlement value [1]. Traders must also watch for potential flight delays or diversions at Haneda due to weather, which JAL has flagged as a possibility for 13 July, though this rarely impacts temperature sensors [8]. The primary dependency is the integrity of the RJTT station data; if the source fails to record a value, the market may remain unresolved, explaining the current zero probability assignment [5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 13?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.