توقع: Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo's daily maximum temperature on 14 July 2026 will be recorded at Haneda Airport Station and resolved against Wunderground historical data. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, capturing the full calendar day's peak across all hours.

Mid-July sits within Tokyo's peak summer season, when daily highs routinely exceed 30°C. Historical records from the Japan Meteorological Agency show that 14 July has seen maxima ranging from 28°C to 35°C over recent decades, with an average high near 32°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts or treating this as a placeholder market pending resolution criteria confirmation. Comparable dates in early-to-mid July typically produce temperatures in the 31–34°C band under normal atmospheric conditions.

Traders should monitor Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts released in the week preceding 14 July, particularly any alerts for heat waves or unusual pressure systems. El Niño or La Niña conditions active in early 2026 could shift baseline expectations upward or downward. Typhoon activity, whilst less common in mid-July than later summer months, remains a potential disruptor capable of suppressing daytime highs through cloud cover and precipitation. The specific resolution source—Haneda's automated station rather than central Tokyo observations—may record marginally different values than widely reported figures, a technical detail worth cross-referencing against historical Wunderground archives for that location.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 14?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.