توقع: Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo faces its peak summer heat on 16 July 2026, with the highest temperature at Haneda Airport Station set to determine the outcome of this weather prediction market. Historical data shows Tokyo regularly hits 33–35°C in mid-July, making the current 0% crowd-implied probability for any specific range appear misaligned with typical seasonal patterns. The frontrunner on Polymarket is 33°C at 40%, followed by 34°C at 28%, suggesting traders expect temperatures in the low-to-mid 30s rather than extreme highs or cool anomalies [1].

Comparable cases from recent years show July 16 temperatures in Tokyo have ranged between 31°C and 36°C, with 33°C and 34°C being the most frequent outcomes over the past decade. This consistency supports the market’s current weighting toward those ranges and highlights why a 0% probability for any outcome is statistically unusual unless the market is still in early price discovery. Traders should monitor Wunderground’s daily history updates for Haneda Airport as the settlement window closes, since real-time temperature logs will directly confirm the resolution source [1].

Key catalysts include any sudden shifts in regional cloud cover, humidity levels, or wind patterns that could push temperatures above 35°C or below 32°C. While no specific weather alerts have been issued yet for 16 July, traders should watch the Japan Meteorological Agency’s forecast updates and Wunderground’s live data as the day progresses. These dependencies will determine whether the market corrects toward the 33–34°C range or shifts unexpectedly if extreme conditions develop.

Sources: 1

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 16?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.