توقع: Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo's peak temperature on 28 July 2026 will be measured at Haneda Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data from Wunderground. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, meaning the full daily maximum must be recorded before resolution occurs.

July temperatures at Tokyo Haneda typically range between 32–35°C, with occasional peaks above 36°C during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting range options to be clarified or treating this as a placeholder market. Historical data from the Japan Meteorological Agency shows that late July in Tokyo frequently experiences high humidity and sustained heat, with 2023 recording 35.1°C on 28 July and 2022 reaching 34.8°C on the same date. Extreme outliers—temperatures exceeding 38°C—occur roughly once per decade in this window, making very high ranges statistically unlikely but not unprecedented.

Traders should monitor Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts released in early July, which typically provide 14-day outlooks with reasonable accuracy for temperature ranges. El Niño or La Niña conditions active during mid-2026 could shift seasonal patterns; current climate indices should be checked against historical analogues from similar years. Typhoon activity in late July occasionally moderates peak temperatures through cloud cover, though this remains difficult to predict beyond 10 days. The specific resolution source—Wunderground's Haneda station data—should be cross-referenced against JMA official records, as minor discrepancies between weather services occasionally occur.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 28?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.