توقع: Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event is the daily peak heat at Tokyo Haneda Airport on 6 July 2026, where current market pricing implies a near-zero chance of the temperature exceeding 26°C. Historical data for Tokyo in July consistently shows daily maximums between 26°C and 30°C, with the Japan Meteorological Agency recording a daily normal maximum of 29.2°C for this period[5]. Current observations at the airport show 26°C at 05:00 BST, but peak temperatures typically occur between 11 AM and 6 PM, often rising significantly higher than early morning readings[2]. Reddit travellers note that July weather in Tokyo is frequently misreported as 40°C in casual conversation, yet official records rarely exceed 32°C, with average highs hovering around 29°C[1].

Traders should monitor the hourly temperature updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source, as deviations from the 29°C average could shift probabilities rapidly[8]. The primary catalyst is the arrival of the afternoon heat surge, which historically pushes temperatures into the 30–32°C range, making the 26°C threshold highly unlikely to be breached[7]. No recent injury or suspension news affects this weather event, but forecast adjustments from the Japan Meteorological Agency issued at 11:00 on 6 July could provide early signals of anomalous cooling or heating trends[5]. If the afternoon high remains below 27°C, it would represent a significant outlier compared to the decade-long average of 29°C for Haneda in July[7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 6?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.