توقع: Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event driving this market is the peak summer heat expected at Tokyo Haneda Airport on 7 July 2026, a date historically synonymous with Tokyo’s most intense thermal conditions. Current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests traders believe the temperature will fall outside the specific range being wagered on, yet this stance ignores the region’s consistent July climate patterns.

Historical data reveals that July highs in Tokyo typically climb from 80°F to 86°F, rarely dipping below 71°F or exceeding 93°F, with the warmest day of the month often reaching 29.8°C (85.6°F) around 31 July[1][6]. Recent records show the highest temperature in the last 15 days was 81.8°F on 30 June 2026, indicating heat is already building into the season[5]. The 0% probability appears misaligned with these established thermal baselines, which frame early July as a period of rapidly rising heat rather than cool anomalies.

Traders should monitor Wunderground’s hourly updates for 7 July, as sudden shifts in cloud cover or wind speed could alter the peak temperature within hours[3]. The AccuWeather forecast for Haneda in July 2026 predicts daily highs between 79°F and 89°F, with an average high of 87°F, suggesting the market range may be too narrow to capture typical extremes[4]. No major weather disruptions or suspensions are currently reported, but any unexpected rain or typhoon activity would be the primary catalyst to watch, as these events can rapidly suppress temperatures below historical norms.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 7?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.