توقع: Highest temperature in Wellington on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington’s temperature on 10 August will be judged off the highest reading in Weather Underground’s Daily Observations for Wellington International Airport, which matters because this market is about the day’s *actual* peak rather than a summary figure. August in Wellington is typically cool and steady, with average highs clustered around 12–13°C and historical monthly highs generally sitting in the low teens, so the market starts from a fairly tight winter range rather than a wide summer-style spread.[1][2][8][11]

That backdrop helps explain why a 0% yes price looks anchored to a narrow set of outcomes: the station’s recent August history has mostly printed daily highs in the 8–13°C band, while Weather Underground’s current August 2026 history already shows early-month highs between 8°C and 16°C, including 16°C on 3 August and 13°C on 9 August in the monthly log.[7] Comparable August climatology also points to occasional milder days but not many extremes, with long-run August record highs around the mid-to-high teens and most days well below that.[11][20]

For traders, the key catalysts are the airport station’s late updates, any differences between the Daily Observations table and the headline Day High & Low summary, and the timing of the final observation close around midday UTC in the settlement window. Fresh synoptic changes matter most: stronger northerlies can lift daytime maxima above the usual winter band, while rain, cloud cover and onshore winds tend to cap the top temperature. Weather Underground’s daily history page is the relevant source to watch as the day develops.[5][7]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Wellington on August 10?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Can I import form data and lineups?

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