توقع: Highest temperature in Wellington on July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market tracks the highest temperature recorded at Wellington International Airport on 7 July 2026, with the current crowd-implied probability of any specific outcome sitting at 0% YES. This reflects the extreme uncertainty in pinpointing a single degree range when typical early-July daytime highs in Wellington cluster between 11°C and 15°C, making outcomes from 12°C through 16°C all statistically plausible yet individually unlikely to dominate the market[5]. Historical data shows the warmest day in early July often reaches 17.8°C, while the coldest can dip to 11.1°C, framing a narrow but volatile range where small atmospheric shifts dictate the resolution[4].

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground and the National Weather Service for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, particularly as light rain showers and a moderate breeze are forecast for today, which typically suppress peak temperatures[3]. The seasonal outlook from NIWA indicates temperatures are most likely near average (45% chance) with occasional cold snaps possible under persistent high pressure, suggesting a risk of readings falling below the 12°C threshold[2]. Any sudden shift in pressure systems or wind direction, such as the current southerly flow at 16 mph, could further lower the high, making the 0% probability a rational reflection of the difficulty in isolating one precise degree range before the settlement window closes[3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Wellington on July 7?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.