توقع: Highest temperature in Wuhan on July 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wuhan's peak temperature on 19 July 2026 will be measured at Tianhe International Airport Station, the city's official weather observation point. July sits within Wuhan's hottest season, when the Yangtze River valley experiences sustained high-pressure systems and limited cloud cover. Historical data from the past two decades shows July daily maxima in Wuhan typically range between 32°C and 37°C, with occasional peaks above 38°C during particularly intense heat waves.

The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are positioning for an outcome at the extreme lower end of the range or treating the market as unresolved. Wuhan's July climate is remarkably consistent year-on-year; since 2004, temperatures below 28°C on any July day are exceptionally rare, occurring fewer than five times across the entire dataset. The city's urban heat island effect, combined with its geographical position in a basin surrounded by hills, amplifies afternoon temperatures relative to surrounding regions.

Traders should monitor mid-July 2026 weather forecasts from China Meteorological Administration and international models (ECMWF, GFS) approximately two weeks before settlement. Tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during early-to-mid July could introduce cloud cover and precipitation that would suppress peak temperatures, though such systems typically affect Wuhan's weather only indirectly. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on 19 July, requiring resolution based on Wunderground's historical records within hours of the final observation.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Wuhan on July 19?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.