توقع: Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the lowest temperature on 17 August 2026, with settlement contingent on publication of the daily minimum reading in Celsius to one decimal place. August represents the height of Hong Kong's summer monsoon season, when daytime highs routinely exceed 32°C and overnight lows typically remain between 26–28°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect the absolute daily minimum to fall outside the lowest available range bracket, though the specific temperature thresholds for each resolution category are not disclosed in the market description.

Historical August data from the Hong Kong Observatory shows that daily minimums during this month rarely drop below 25°C. The lowest August temperatures on record occur during occasional tropical storm passages or brief cool air intrusions, but sustained cool spells are exceptionally rare. August 2023 recorded daily minimums consistently in the 26–27°C range, whilst August 2024 saw similar patterns. The current crowd assessment reflects this seasonal reality: genuine cool-weather outcomes in mid-August are meteorologically improbable under normal atmospheric conditions.

Traders should monitor tropical cyclone forecasts and upper-air pattern shifts in early August 2026, as these represent the primary catalysts for anomalously low temperatures. The Hong Kong Observatory issues extended forecasts approximately ten days in advance. Settlement depends entirely on official data publication; any delays in the daily extract release will postpone resolution. The market cannot settle until the Observatory publishes its final temperature record for that date.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 17?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.