توقع: Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the lowest daily temperature in degrees Celsius on 13 July 2026, with settlement tied to the "Absolute Daily Min" figure published in their Daily Extract dataset. July represents the height of Hong Kong's summer monsoon season, when daytime highs routinely exceed 32°C and overnight lows typically remain between 26–28°C. The current 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect the lowest temperature to fall outside the lowest available range bracket, though the exact threshold bands are not specified in the market parameters.

Historical July data from the Hong Kong Observatory shows minimum temperatures rarely drop below 24°C during this month. The lowest July minimum on record across recent decades has typically fallen in the 23–25°C range, occurring only during occasional tropical storm passages or unusual atmospheric conditions. Traders should reference the Observatory's 30-year climate normals for July, which indicate a median daily minimum around 26°C, to calibrate expectations against the available resolution brackets.

The key variable affecting settlement is tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during early-to-mid July 2026. Any system tracking towards or across Hong Kong could suppress temperatures significantly, though even direct impacts rarely produce July minima below 22°C. Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts and any issued tropical cyclone warnings in the week preceding 13 July. The Observatory publishes final Daily Extract data typically within 2–3 days of the observation date, meaning resolution will not occur until mid-July at the earliest.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 13?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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