توقع: Lowest temperature in Shanghai on July 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai's summer temperatures in mid-July typically range between 26°C and 34°C, with overnight lows rarely dropping below 24°C during the peak monsoon season. The city experiences high humidity and frequent afternoon thunderstorms at this time of year, which can temporarily suppress daytime highs but have minimal impact on overnight minimums. Historical data from Shanghai Pudong International Airport shows that July 19th has recorded low temperatures between 24°C and 27°C over the past decade, with 2023 registering 25.2°C and 2022 reaching 24.8°C as the lowest readings on comparable dates.

The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in an expectation that temperatures will not fall into the lowest available range bracket on the settlement date. This reflects the seasonal norm: July is Shanghai's hottest month, and atmospheric conditions favour sustained warmth even during nocturnal hours. Traders should monitor the China Meteorological Administration's 10-day forecasts released in early July, which will indicate whether any unusual weather systems—such as a rare cold front or tropical cyclone—might alter typical patterns. Wunderground's historical records for Shanghai Pudong will serve as the definitive source, capturing readings from the airport's automated weather station throughout July 19th.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Lowest temperature in Shanghai on July 19?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.