توقع: Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 8?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai’s late-summer heat makes this a straightforward *hot-weather* market rather than a coin flip: August average highs in the city sit around 32–33°C, and historical records for the month extend into the high 30s and even 40°C. For 8 August specifically, published climate histories put the typical daytime high near the low 30s, while the all-time peak for that date is 41°C, so a settlement band that captures a figure in the low-to-mid 30s would fit the long-run pattern best.[1][2][3][7]

The current 0% YES price is hard to square with the climatology unless traders are anchoring on an unusually cool day or a data-source nuance. Weather Underground’s Shanghai history page has already posted 8/8/2026 with a high of 93°F, which is about 33.9°C, a reading that would sit in the upper-middle of the likely settlement range if it holds in the Daily Observations table.[4] The key dependency is the settlement source itself: this market resolves from the highest temperature in Weather Underground’s Daily Observations, not the Day High & Low summary, so intraday updates, station-specific edits, or a late observation revision are the main things that could move the outcome.[4][5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 8?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.