توقع: Highest temperature in NYC on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City is currently enduring an unprecedented heatwave that has already shattered decades-old temperature records across the Northeast, with LaGuardia Airport hitting 104°F on 3 July 2026. This extreme event, which killed 29 people in New Jersey alone, has pushed thermometers well beyond historical norms for early July, creating a volatile backdrop for forecasting the peak temperature on 10 July. The crowd-implied probability of 0% for any specific outcome suggests traders are either hedging against the unknown peak or betting the temperature will fall outside the listed ranges, despite the region being in the midst of its most intense heat event in over a century.

Historical data frames this probability as highly conservative, given that LaGuardia’s record high was only 101°F on 3 July 2026, breaking a 1966 record of 101°F by three degrees [2]. Previous peaks at the station reached 103°F in August 1948 and 102°F in August 2006, indicating that 104°F is already an outlier for July [3]. With the current heatwave described as unprecedented across a 500-mile corridor from Washington to New Jersey, the likelihood of temperatures remaining near or exceeding 100°F on 10 July is significant, making the 0% probability for specific ranges appear disconnected from the immediate meteorological reality [2].

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s real-time timeseries for LaGuardia, which tracks temperature and humidity trends through the settlement window ending 12:00 UTC on 10 July [9]. The persistence of record-breaking midnight temperatures, such as the 94°F reading recorded at midnight on 4 July, suggests the heat will not dissipate quickly [4]. Key catalysts include any official announcements from the National Weather Service regarding heat advisories or the release of final daily high data from Wunderground, the designated resolution source, which will confirm if the 10 July peak matches or exceeds the 3 July record [2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in NYC on July 10?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

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Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

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Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.