Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات المونديال) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 100% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 100% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 0% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 0% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 0% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 0% |
Market context
ZYB Esport and Vitality.Bee meet in an LFL regular-season best-of-one, a format that leaves little room for recovery and makes drafting and early-game execution disproportionately important. The market’s 0% crowd-implied YES looks extreme against the recent evidence: Vitality.Bee have beaten ZYB twice in three 2026 meetings, including a 1-0 regular-season win on 9 April and a 2-1 playoff series on 13 May, while ZYB’s lone win in that span came in the earlier BO1. [4][5][12]
The main historical read is that this matchup has been competitive rather than one-sided. Head-to-head records are split enough to suggest variance matters, but Vitality.Bee’s stronger long-run profile and the more recent results point to them as the more stable side entering a one-map setting. Public prediction models also lean that way, with one recent analysis pricing Vitality.Bee around 56% and noting both teams have shown mixed form over their last five games, which keeps the upset live even if Vitality.Bee remain favoured. [5][7][10]
For traders, the key catalysts are straightforward: final roster confirmation, any late substitute announcements, and whether the match starts on time or is affected by scheduling changes. One recent match listing showed no confirmed roster changes or injuries altering the setup in the past week, which matters because, in a BO1, a single draft edge or player absence can swing the entire market. [7][13][11]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: LoL: ZYB Esport vs Vitality.Bee (BO1) - LFL Regular Season. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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