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توقع: Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International Elimination Round

How the prediction market is pricing "توقع: Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International Elimination Round" right now — Polymarket mid plus comparison with Betfair and Manifold.

Game 1 Winner 100% Match Winner 92% Ends in Daytime 91% First Blood in Game 1? 90% Volume: $772K Liquidity: $938K Closes: 16 Aug 2026
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توقع: Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International Elimination Round

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via توقعات المونديال) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Game 1 Winner100%
Match Winner92%
Ends in Daytime91%
First Blood in Game 1?90%
Game 2 Winner75%
Game Handicap: FLC (-1.5) vs Vici Gaming (+1.5)74%
Ends in Daytime50%
Both Teams Beat Roshan50%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks50%
Any Player Ultra Kill50%
Any Player Rampage50%
Ends in Daytime50%
Both Teams Beat Roshan50%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks50%
Any Player Ultra Kill50%
Any Player Rampage50%
First Blood in Game 2?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2?34%
O/U 2.5 Games26%
Both Teams Beat Roshan10%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks10%
Any Player Ultra Kill10%
Any Player Rampage10%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1?10%
Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1?10%
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1?10%
Total Kills Over/Under 40.5 in Game 1?1%
Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 2?0%

Market context

Team Falcons and Vici Gaming will contest an elimination-round best-of-three at The International 2026, with the loser's tournament run ending immediately. The match is scheduled for 15 August 2026 at 10:00 PM ET, with settlement contingent on completion by 16 August 08:00 UTC. The 94% implied probability for Team Falcons reflects their standing as the favoured side, though elimination formats introduce volatility absent from group-stage play.

Vici Gaming's recent form and roster stability matter considerably here. The Chinese organisation has historically performed well at International events, reaching multiple finals, but their 2026 season trajectory and any mid-tournament adjustments to their line-up will shape their chances. Team Falcons, by contrast, have built momentum through earlier rounds; their path to this elimination stage suggests they've navigated the bracket successfully. Head-to-head records between these squads in 2026 regional qualifiers and any preparatory scrims would indicate whether the 94% probability overvalues Falcons or reflects genuine performance gaps.

Traders should monitor official schedule confirmations from The International organisers, particularly given the tight settlement window. Any roster changes, player illness, or technical delays affecting the 15 August fixture could trigger the 14-day postponement clause (deadline 29 August 11:59 PM ET). Patch updates deployed immediately before the match, though unlikely this late in the tournament, could alter hero viability and favour one team's preparation. Stream availability and official bracket confirmation from Valve's channels will confirm the match proceeds as scheduled rather than resolving to a 50-50 tie scenario.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International Elimination Round. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Can I bet on individual matches?
Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
Which sports markets are available?
Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
How fast do sports winnings settle?
Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
Can I import form data and lineups?
This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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