Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات المونديال) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 1 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 92% |
| Ends in Daytime | 91% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 90% |
| Game 2 Winner | 75% |
| Game Handicap: FLC (-1.5) vs Vici Gaming (+1.5) | 74% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? | 34% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 26% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 10% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 10% |
| Any Player Rampage | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 40.5 in Game 1? | 1% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 2? | 0% |
Market context
Team Falcons and Vici Gaming will contest an elimination-round best-of-three at The International 2026, with the loser's tournament run ending immediately. The match is scheduled for 15 August 2026 at 10:00 PM ET, with settlement contingent on completion by 16 August 08:00 UTC. The 94% implied probability for Team Falcons reflects their standing as the favoured side, though elimination formats introduce volatility absent from group-stage play.
Vici Gaming's recent form and roster stability matter considerably here. The Chinese organisation has historically performed well at International events, reaching multiple finals, but their 2026 season trajectory and any mid-tournament adjustments to their line-up will shape their chances. Team Falcons, by contrast, have built momentum through earlier rounds; their path to this elimination stage suggests they've navigated the bracket successfully. Head-to-head records between these squads in 2026 regional qualifiers and any preparatory scrims would indicate whether the 94% probability overvalues Falcons or reflects genuine performance gaps.
Traders should monitor official schedule confirmations from The International organisers, particularly given the tight settlement window. Any roster changes, player illness, or technical delays affecting the 15 August fixture could trigger the 14-day postponement clause (deadline 29 August 11:59 PM ET). Patch updates deployed immediately before the match, though unlikely this late in the tournament, could alter hero viability and favour one team's preparation. Stream availability and official bracket confirmation from Valve's channels will confirm the match proceeds as scheduled rather than resolving to a 50-50 tie scenario.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International Elimination Round. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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